The tutorial has to do with some forecasting for sports stuff. Honestly, I don't really follow any sports so it makes no sense to me, but the important bit is that Prophet takes in a csv file in the form of two columns ds and y. The ds one is the date in the format of YYYY-MM-dd and the y is the numeric value. That's it really.
We are going to load in the namespaces to start it all off as well as a macro to help with plotting.
We are going to do two things differently with this. First, we are going to factor in seasonality. The second thing is that we are going to make our predictions monthly since the data itself is monthly.
(defm(fbprophet/Prophet:seasonality_mode"multiplicative"));;; Let's factor in some holiday effects
It seems like July is the peak time for UFO sightings. It confirms the suspicion that the Independence Day movie was onto something. It also looks like January and February are low times for sightings. This makes sense with the classical view of cold-blooded reptilian aliens, but we must keep our minds open to other life forms based on temperature. For example, there could be butter based aliens out there that also would have movement hampered at colder temperatures.
Facebook prophet is a powerful tool for forecasting series data. It would work really well on everyday problems like sales data and page views.
It can also be applied to reassure ourselves that whatever we are doing in the fight against outer-space aliens seems to be working. Keep it up!